Jim Cramer and Carley Garner went off the charts discussing the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and the VIX.
There are a lot of reasons to be bearish stocks, but those stories have been circulating for months. For instance, the Fed’s dramatically hawkish stance triggered a bond market calamity and the Russian invasion of Ukraine put flames on the inflation fire while dramatically increasing geopolitical risks. Further, we’ve witnessed never-ending lockdowns in China. While we don’t know what we don’t know, investors have had plenty of time to digest the current news cycle and react accordingly. Yet, thus far the S&P 500 correction has been well within the lines in regards to historical pullbacks which tend to average about 13%. We are also getting into the heart of earnings season which could act as a stick save to the market (markets in a trough tend to find support from quarterly earnings) and seasonality is overall supportive. Throughout history, the market has put in some significant bottoms in March; so far we are holding the march 2022 lows but the jury is still out.
Additionally, some of the stories that lead to corrective action in stocks might have run their course. We’ve seen signs of stability in the interest rate market in recent sessions and commodity prices have moderated. It should also be noted that the Fed hasn’t always been able to follow through on its rate hike campaign ambitions (remember 2019/2019?). Perhaps the market has priced in more rate hikes than the Fed will be able to, or need to, deliver.
To be clear, we are not expecting all blue skies from here, but we do think the market is in a holding pattern in which we could see some surprising strength into resistance areas. Nevertheless, the upside potential is far less than investors grew accustomed to in 2020 and 2021.
Here is a link to the full article: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/26/jim-cramer-charts-suggest-near-term-market-pain-may-be-over.html