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Carley will be discussing various options and futures strategies using gold as a portfolio diversifier. Gold, unlike other physical assets, has very little industrial or practical purposes but it can be an effective way to hedge a traditional portfolio. Yet, using inefficient products such as ETFs could expose traders to unexpected risks and drawbacks. The futures and options markets, on the other hand, offer highly efficient access to gold price exposure fitting the needs and risk tolerance of any sized investor or speculator.
-Why consider gold for hedging or speculating?
-Gold futures vs ETFs.
-What moves the gold market?
-Analyzing and understanding gold seasonal tendencies.
-Mining for clues in the COT Report.
-Technical analysis and gold futures.
-The time and place for gold is not “always”.
-Hedges or diversifiers are only helpful if profits are locked in.
The June FOMC meeting will be the first to include economic projections since the COVID-19 shutdown. Treasuries and stock index futures will be sure to react to the news.Read More
According to The Small Exchange’s website, it offers the best of the stock and futures worlds in a single product. They claim to provide trading in products that pair the efficiency of futures with the simplicity of stocks. For that to be an accurate statement, we will need to see liquidity come into these products and their ties to the underlying assets must be proven but on the surface, I like what I see. The Small Exchange appears to be offering a bridge from stock trading into futures trading.Read More
Although the oil and natural gas markets face vastly different fundamental stories, they do have a few aspects in common. For starters, we’ve seen oil and gas drilling rig counts collapse to levels not seen since the financial crisis and at a pace we have never seen before. Secondly, both commodities will be influenced by the currency markets and the dollar strength is showing signs of fatigue. Both of these factors should at least provide support to the gas market and might even help pull prices up toward a more equilibrium level.Read More
The oil market needed to contend with an extreme but somewhat transitory, phenomenon. After all, the US is slowly turning the economy and, therefore, energy consumption, back on, and oil producers around the globe have been forced to slow down production. The cure for low commodity prices is always low commodity prices.
The Baker Hughes rig count reported on Friday that 60 rigs had fallen offline in the previous week to leave only 378 crude oil rigs in operation. We haven’t seen the US shale industry cut back like this since early 2016, which happened to mark the low for oil for years to come.
The DeCarley Trading mobile app is the ultimate communication tool complete with live streaming videos of our commodity trading educational events and interactive chat features. At a time in which email is becoming obsolete and SMS text messaging burdensome and expensive to overseas contacts, this futures market mobile app bridges the gap between the need to communicate in real time and the obstacles more traditional methods face. Armed with the ability to opt in or out for push notifications based on user interest, this communication app words toward streamlining desirable content for the user making for an efficient experience relative to other communication platforms (emails, websites, etc.).
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Gold and silver futures generally move in the same overall direction, albeit often at varying paces. Yet, today’s extreme fundamental environment in which the economy has been turned off, but the floodgates have been opened to fear have resulted in the two precious metals taking two very different paths. As investors have turned to gold as a portfolio hedging mechanism, the industrial demand for silver has cooled off. As a result, the gold-to-silver ratio has risen over 100 for the first time in history (at least as far as I am aware). In the past, an excessive gold-to-silver ratio reading has eventually translated into higher silver prices. Will this time be different because of COVID-19? Probably not.Read More
The mantra, “don’t fight the Fed”, has been the trendy tagline to reference high-flying Treasury securities. This is for good reason, the Federal Reserve unleashed bazooka style monetary policy to combat the COVID-19 virus and its economic effects forcing interest rates toward zero.
The masses seem to have accepted the idea of negative interest rates. In fact, they seem to be expecting it. The Fed isn't expected to make any changes to the Fed Funds rate until we get more clarity on the impact of the COVID shutdown. Thus, unless the bond vigilantes take it upon themselves to push short-term rates into negative territory, it might not happen. Also, now that we've seen the idea of negative interest rates become mainstream, the story might finally have run its course. That’s generally how it works; once a fundamental story becomes seemingly obvious, its implications are already priced into markets, and prices generally reverse against generally accepted expectations.