For some reason, she ended up saying very little of what was planned. Here are the talking points -
• In the commodity business, we always look at things from a "this time is different' mentality, when this time is rarely different.
• It appears we are looking at trendline corn yields with few interferences from Mother Nature. This is the most common ending to a season, but we spend all year trying to talk ourselves out of it.
• The screwworm threat is real, but perhaps the worst-case scenario is almost priced in. 375 feeders looks like a potential inflection point if you draw a trendline that starts in 1997!!!
• Historically, high grain prices have pulled cattle up, and low grain prices have either held or pulled cattle down. The current environment of historically low corn and high livestock has never proven to be sustainable.
• Both markets appear to be following the 2014 playbook.
