The DeCarley Perspective Trading Newsletter

Is it time to buy the "cable"?

  This newsletter was emailed to DeCarley Trading clients on September 19th, 2011.

Commodity Trading Newsletter by DeCarley Trading 

Thank you for choosing DeCarley Trading.  We are proud to offer the DeCarley Perspective as an informational guide to our clients and subscribers.  We hope that you walk away from the newsletter with a better understanding of market fundamentals, as well as technical and seasonal factors. 

**There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.

**Past performance is not indicative of future results

On the radar:

  • Is it time to buy the "cable"? 

 

British Pound

Elevated inflation and "never-ending" quantitative easing by the Bank of England have triggered a 10 cent slide in the price of the British Pound in Dollar terms.  The December Pound future peaked in mid August just under $1.66 and found a low in today's session just over $1.56. 

According to historical stats and seasonal tendencies, this slide probably shouldn't happened but now that it has we feel like it could be an opportunity for the bulls.  We are well aware that the UK economy is in the dumps and central bankers will be reluctant to raise rates anytime soon.  After all, second quarter GDP was only marginally positive and the unemployment rate is hovering near 8%.  However, the Pound has suffered at the hands of possible European default contagion despite the fact they aren't officially part of the Euro and we think the market will eventually cut them some slack simply because they aren't obligated to "bail" EU members out. 

Also, as we all know...there comes a point in time in which the selling has been so swift and so relentless that it simply dries up.  As they say, if all of the sellers are in... there is nobody else to pressure prices. 

We can't rule out a dramatic probe lower to the mid $1.55 area, but overall we like the upside.  Although we tend to prefer short option trades, there just doesn't seem to be enough premium to make it worthwhile (although this might change in the coming days).  In this instance, a better angle might be to simply begin a scale trade using E-micro futures (symbol M6Bz1), or simply buying a cheap lottery ticket call and hoping the rebound is as sharp as the decline.  We prefer the E-micro strategy, but if you would rather buy an option...we like anything in November with a strike of 162 or a bit higher (preferably 163) or in December with a strike of 166 or higher. 

 British Pound Futures and FOREX Trading

 

DeCarley Trading

This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

1-866-790-TRADE (8723)

 

**There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.  The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable.  Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities.  Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Share

DeCarley Trading on Twitter

Carley Garner Trading Books

  • All
  • A Trader's First Book On Commodities
  • Carley Garner
  • Carley Garner Books
  • Commodity Trading Book
  • Futures Trading Book
  • Learn To Trade
  • Learn To Trade Commodities
  • Learn To Trade Futures
  • Higher Probability Commodity Trading, new Carley Garner book

    Higher Probability Commodity Trading, new Carley Garner book

    According to Phil Flynn, Fox Business News contributor, this is Carley Garner's "masterpiece"! Order from Amazon today! "A great read for both beginner and advanced commodity traders. Carley nails the seemingly impossible task of leveling the playing field by imparting vital concepts in easy to digest bites ...she doesn't leave out the harsh realities and heartbreak many overzealous speculators face." -- JON NAJARIAN, co-founder NajarianFamilyOffice.com "I love the book... it's an MBA in trading for the
    Read More
  • Third Edition of A Trader's First Book on Commodities, now available

    Third Edition of A Trader's First Book on Commodities, now available

    In the latest edition of Carley Garner's beginners' book on commodities, she details everything you need to know about futures and options trading before placing a trade.  BUY NOW In their quest for trading commodities profitably, beginning traders spend a substantial amount of time studying market theory, various types of market analysis, and paper-trading in the futures and options markets.  Yet, almost all of them fail to take the necessary steps to ensure their trading
    Read More
    • A Trader's First Book On Commodities
    • Carley Garner
    • Carley Garner Books
    • Commodity Trading Book
    • Futures Trading Book
    • Learn To Trade
    • Learn To Trade Commodities
    • Learn To Trade Futures
  • Commodity Options the Book

    Commodity Options the Book

    It isn't free, but it's close! If this book saves you 2 ticks, you've recouped your investment.   Commodities are hot, as Jim Rogers would say.  Stagnant stocks and the massive bull rally in raw commodities have lured much of the attention away from Wall Street and toward down-town Chicago.  It is difficult to turn on the television or open the newspaper without being reminded of the impact that commodity prices have on our daily lives.   Traders
    Read More
  • Currency Trading in the FOREX and Futures Markets

    Currency Trading in the FOREX and Futures Markets

    Get a copy of Carley Garner's latest book at Amazon.com, or any major outlet! "Once again, Carley Garner demonstrates her ability to boil down complex concepts for individual traders. Trading Currencies in the FOREX and Futures Market will put budding currency traders ahead of the curve with its unique blend of the basics and some refreshingly unexpected material." ~ Karris Golden, Traders Press® "Carley is a smart trader and broker; she understands the markets and the importance of
    Read More

Newsletter Trial